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Beginning in 1995, humanity can accurately predict the location, time and strength of earthquakes.

TRON technology designed to predict in real time date force and epicenter. For the mathematical and statistical analysis uses a single database (DB) on the behavior of domestic birds, fish and animals, fills Internet users. Information for processing database is provided directly to the site TRON, and users of social networks and Internet services (Facebook, Twitter, Google+, Yahoo, Skype, etc.) from earthquake-prone areas. Using special API (application programming interface) applications, they can provide information on themselves as social services, and using plug-ins to other sites.


Unlike most natural disasters, earthquakes strike without warning. Between large quakes and resulting tsunamis, millions of lives have been lost because science has been unable to provide accurate, useful earthquake forecasts. The US Geological Survey (USGS) believes casualties from earthquakes will continue to increase over the coming decades because of population growth in seismically active regions. There is a lot of science to be done before TRON can claim victory, and then a lot of additional work to make forecasts useful. In the meantime many scientists, including several at the USGS, dismiss the entire concept as being either implausible or impossible. Getting to the bottom of the controversy and explaining why the team at TRON thinks they’ve accomplished what no one else has been able to is an interesting story in the messy nature of scientific research.


 First, it’s important to understand the difference between true earthquake prediction — or at least forecasting — and the simpler idea of earthquake alerts. The largest efforts to provide early warning of earthquakes rely on quick detection of the faster, but not very destructive, P-waves as they travel through the ground. Since P-waves arrive slightly before the more damaging S-waves, it is possible to send out an earthquake alert seconds before shaking can be felt. For quakes within 20 miles, the waves are too close for any warning, but a quake 40 miles away, for example, could be preceded by an alert as much as 10 seconds in advance. USGS is working with several universities on an Earthquake Early Warning system which relies on this approach. Japan and Mexico have already deployed similar systems which automatically provide alerts when an earthquake is detected. Clearly, a few seconds isn’t enough time to evacuate a city or even get out of most buildings. It is helpful for powering down computers and transformers, opening firehouse doors, starting generators, and taking other quick precautions though, so long as appropriate systems are set up in advance. Aside from potentially finding a doorway or doing a “drop, cover and hold on” this type of alert unfortunately doesn’t do much to reduce the human toll of a major earthquake. That’s where the idea of true earthquake prediction comes in. Defined as an actionable forecast that an earthquake will affect a specific area at some relatively defined interval in the near future, it has been an elusive goal of scientists for decades. Early efforts concentrated on measuring seismic activity and using geologic models to predict when a fault was finally going to give way. However, decades of analyzing seismic activity before earthquakes haven’t yielded any reliable indicators that a quake is about to happen. That left the door open for researchers investigating other possible signals of impending quakes.

    ==Effective quake forecasting is about more than science==

 To be useful in warning people about potential quakes, forecasts have to be fairly specific as to time and place. Most of us in California live with the knowledge that there will be “another big one” on the Loma Prieta fault, but aside from building stronger structures, that knowledge isn’t very helpful on a day-to-day basis. Knowing that a quake will happen in a few days, or even a few hours, and which areas are likely to be affected would be much more useful. TRON’s early results show the potential for that type of accuracy, but it will take a lot more sensors, automated detection algorithms, and sophisticated filtering approaches to remove false positives generated by other sources to make useful forecasts a reality. Even harder than getting the science right will be the politics of creating a meaningful and effective system to react to the data. Like any warning system, if it causes unnecessary panic it’ll be blamed for the loss of time and work. Conversely, if it is too conservative in sounding the alarm, then it will be considered ineffective. Having a warning window as much as two weeks in advance is also a blessing and a curse. It gives cities quite a bit of time to respond, but could also cause massive disruptions for what might turn out to be a minor event. Residents of hurricane and tsunami zones are familiar with the problem of false alarms. Going beyond the simple notion of evacuating areas about to be hit by a major quake, accurate forecasting could usher in entire new ranges of products — the way storm shutters get deployed in advance of oncoming hurricanes, imagine ways to protect building occupants from shattered glass, for example. Relief supplies and repair crews could also be deployed in plenty of time for fast response. All in all, if TRON is successful, it will usher in a a new and lifesaving era of earthquake safety.


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キャンパる:インタビュー・会いたい人 動物の異常行動による地震予知を研究、麻布大学教授・太田光明さん

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14:47 11-03-2011 去年の3月11日なにしてた 船長の右側を航行しない理由は、私は、思ったか?そして地震の時、場所および強度を予測する技術を思い付いた。

Vladimir Keilis-Borok